Dueling Polls in Costa Rican Referendum

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La Prensa Libre, Costa Rica, today: “Political parties will suffer from public discontent in the wake of the CAFTA referendum.”

Why do I emphasize the case of Mexico here? What does it have to do with our current situation in Brazil? It has a lot to do with it. If the polls start to converge on this kind of “technical tie” between Lula and Alckmin, we are in a risky situation. In the situation of a technical tie, the possibilities of electoral fraud are enormous. I would say that the temptation of electronic fraud would be impossible to resist.Maria Helena Moreira Alves on the 2006 Brazilian elections. See also “When Mapaches Learn to Play Maracatú

Costa Rica: “Não” ao TLC triunfará nas urnas, conforme as pesquisas | Radio Mundo Real: “No on the free trade agreement will triumph at the polls, surveys show.”

The report from the Brazilian radio station, part of the Friends of the Earth International network based in Holland, is from October 4.

File under “apparent failed prognostications,” subheading: “the peculiar mutability of Latin American opinion polls.” And see also

As últimas pesquisas de intenção de voto publicadas na Costa Rica o confirmam; a oposição ao Tratado de Livre Comércio (TLC) com os Estados Unidos não só tem crescido na Costa Rica, como tem superado o apoio que recebe este acordo comercial entre a população. Se antes falava-se de um “empate técnico” entre ambas as opções, agora esse conceito ficou para trás; o “Não” supera o “Sim” no referendo do próximo 7 de outubro, por uma diferença de 12%.

The latest surveys of voter intentions in Costa Rica confirm it: Opposition to the FTA with the United States has not only grown in Costa Rica but has surpassed support for this trade accord. If once a “technical tie” was spoken of by both sides, that concept is now history: “No” will defeat “yes” on October 7 by a margin of 12%.

A pesquisa mais recente –e a última que será publicada antes de que entre em vigor a norma imposta pela lei eleitoral que impede a publicação de pesquisas de opinião- indica que 55 porcento dos costa-riquenhos votariam pelo “Não” ao TLC, enquanto que pelo “Sim” votariam 43 porcento. Esta pesquisa, publicada pelo jornal costa-riquenho La Nación nesta quinta-feira e realizada pela empresa Unimer, indicou que a oposição ao tratado havia crescido em todos os setores da população, mas que se havia aumentado especialmente nas mulheres, os jovens, e as pessoas de renda baixa e média.

The most recent survey — and the latest to be published before an electoral law goes into effect banning publication of opinion polling — shows that 55% will vote “no” while 43% will vote yes. This poll, published by the Costa Rican La Nación daily this Thursday and conducted by Unimer RI, showed that opposition had grown among all sectors of the population, but especially among women, young people and persons with low to middle income.

A pesquisa revelou outros dados interessantes; por exemplo que mais de uma quarta parte das pessoas que afirmaram que votarão no referendo haviam feito sua decisão em setembro.

The survey reveals other interesting data; for example, that more than a quarter of persons who had resolved to vote “no” made their minds up in September.

Outra pesquisa feita pela empresa Demoscopia para o jornal Al Día de Costa Rica aponta o triunfo do “Não”, que teria 50,8 porcento da intenção de voto dos cidadãos contra 49,2 porcento do “Sim”.

Another poll by Demoscopia, published in the Al Día daily, showed “no” prevailing with 50.8 percent against 49.2% “yes.”

Which is actually, you will notice, a technical tie within the survey’s margin of error.

Which is much more ambiguous situation than our friends at Real World Radio would like to believe: Two polls with wildly disparate predictions.

Preliminary indications are that “Yes” prevailed with 52% of the vote.

Demoscopia lists a number of fruit companies and trade associations among the clientele of its market research services, including the likes of Chiquita — paid off both the narco-FARC and and narco-AUC! — and Dole.

Oh, and also the Presidency of Costa Rica.

Is a listed client of Demoscopia’s market research services.

But it’s not a conflict of interest.

It’s a business ecosystem synergy!

Dr. Paniagua of Unimer RI seems to be putting up a fierce fight, on his blog, against critics of the firm’s polling in the last elections, which showed Arias on the decline and likely to lose.

We saw a very similar squabble among polling firms in Mexico after those 2006 elections as well. See

Conforme a imprensa local, para o referendo do domingo o Tribunal Supremo de Eleições (TSE) da Costa Rica tem habilitado 4.950 circuitos receptores de votos. Por sua vez, para garantir a transparência do processo, uma missão de oitenta observadores da Organização dos Estados Americanos (OEA) supervisará a consulta popular, segundo o presidente do TSE, Luis Antonio Sobrado.

According to the local press, the elections authority has mounted 4,950 polling places. To guarantee the transparency of the process, an 80-member observer mission from the OAS will supervise the popular referendum, according to TSE presiding justice Luis Antonio Sobrado.

Considering the source:

Rádio Mundo Real (RMR) é uma rádio web multilingüe que opera dentro da área de comunicação da rede ecologista Amigos da Terra Internacional (ATI), e que propõe-se atender os impactos que os processos de liberalização comercial provocam em nossos países. Através da RMR divulgam-se algumas das diversas formas de resistência às ambições das corporações transnacionais levadas a cabo por comunidades locais.

It’s really sad to still see developing nations in Latin America serving as battlegrounds for proxy wars — this time, it seems, among developed-nation commercial blocs and squabbling multinationals and their legions of do-gooder “astroturf” front-groups.

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