Reason to Be Short Veja Magazine No. 905

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Bolsa sobe 2,71% e recupera perdas do início da semana (UOL Economia, Brazil): “Stock market rises 2.71% and recovers losses from earlier in the week.”

A follow-up to

Veja magazine had predicted that

This will be an eventful week in the financial markets. Goldman Sachs has sold all its positions in Brazil and Mexico and warned of a major correction in other emerging markets. “The crisis is going to start to affect us,” an experienced investment banker predicted just now. That is, expect the dollar to rise against the real and the stock market to fall.

Today’s news:

A Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa) subiu 2,71% nesta quarta-feira, aos 64.630 pontos. O giro financeiro ficou acima de R$ 6,79 bilhões.

The São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa) rose 2.71% today, to 64,630 points. Volume was more than R$6.79 billion.

The dollar, meanwhile, fell to “its lowest level since March 2000,” I am reading.

Which is bad news for us.

Com a marca, a Bovespa se recupera da perda de mais de 4% no início da semana. Foi a segunda alta seguida acima de 2%. Ontem, o Ibovespa encerrou em alta de 2,28%.

With that, the Bovespa recovered its losses of more than 4% early in the week. It was the second session in a row with gains of more than 2%. Yesterday, the main index closed up 2.28%.

There is still more week to come, of course.

The Apocalypse might be waiting for a Thursday.

But I did think that Goldman’s explanation of its reasons for “finding it prudent to take a profit” here in Brazil was pretty carefully worded, and credible.

It seemed to me that Veja was ascribing moral panic to Goldman that its own carefully chosen words did not express.

I call this ventriloquism. See also

Mainly, it is just that I have a hypothesis that I am continuing to track, on the topic of failed prognostications in Brazilian journalism.

Namely, that if you believe the opposite of what you read in Veja magazine, you have a significantly better chance of believing things that might actually be the case.


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