Pierde Chávez referendo; tendrá que irse en 2013: El Universal (Mexico) reports that “some” exit-polling results, reported to favor YES in the Venezuelan referendum yesterday, as reported by the EFE news agency (and others, it implies) may have been fictional.
File under “Lies, damned lies, and Latin American opinion polling.”
Still waiting to see whether claims about the “Operation Pliers” memorandum, supposedly intercepted by Venezuelan spies from our man in Caracas and also suggesting an advantage for YES, can be substantiated. See
Los rostros adustos contrastaban con los mensajes triunfalistas emitidos en las primeras horas que siguieron al cierre de casillas. El gobierno hablaba de ventajas usando datos a su favor de encuestas —algunas inexistentes— filtrados a las agencias internacionales de noticias. Datanálisis, una de las tres empresas citadas en los cables, desmintió que hubiera realizado sondeo alguno.
The crestfallen faces constrasted with the triumphalist messages issued in the hours following the closing of the polls. The government was talking about an edge for YES, using data in its favor from surveys — some of them nonexistent — leaked to international news agencies. Datanálisis, one of the three polling firms cited by the wire services, denied it had performed any exit polling at all.
“Exit polls give victory to Chávez in referendum”: The Folha de S. Paulo front page today. Also: “Corininthians [football club] banished to the second-division.” Which is actually a reliable and regrettable fact, to the great chagrin of the fiel.
Sin embargo algunos medios oficiales que pidieron reserva, consultados por NOVA COLOMBIA dieron a conocer algunas encuestas que se manejan en estos momentos, escrutados ya cerca del 50% de los votos emitidos que dan ventaja al SI. Estas fuentes oficiales coincidieron en destacar que las consultoras que manejan datos como PLM Consultores, Datanálisis y el Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos (IVAD). PLM, dan los siguientes resultados: …
However, some official sources, who requested anonymity, consulted by NOVA COLOMBIA, revealed some exit polls being done at the moment, with 50% of the votes counted, that give an edge to YES. These official sources all emphasized the results reported by PLM, Datanálisis and IVAD, as follows …
And the other two?
G1/Globo Brazil reports the denial as well, but does not contact the other two polling firms cited for comment, cite the news agencies reporting the numbers, or ask them where the got the numbers.
G1/Globo had itself previously reported the EFE story that stated the supposed exit-polling results, but does not refer back to its own possible gullibility on this point.
Globo: Elvis says the world is round!
Globo: Priscilla says the world is flat!
Globo is neutral in the dispute between Priscilla and Elvis. Like Ron Burgundy, it just reads anything that comes over the teleprompter. It is, of course, not the only one. See the discussion of who is responsible for boiling content to ensure it is fit for human consumption, see
At any rate: David Sasaki-style “fear and misinformation abound”!
Another report circulating attributes the exit-polls in question to “Seijas, Consultores 30.11 and PLM Consultores.”
Nova Colombia attributes the information on the exit polls to “official sources who requested anonymity.”
But what about those other two?
PLM and IVAD?
What’s their names?
Who’s their daddy?
What is their track record of successful and failed prognostication?
Did they project a victory for YES?
Based on what?
Are they “respected” or not?
IVAD had reportedly indicated a 43% support for NO on September 21, and a “technical tie” in the days leading up to the “blackout” on polling.
On November 25, BBC Mundo reported that some polling firms had predicted a resounding defeat for YES, others the contrary:
Para contrarrestar los resultados negativos de las últimas encuestas, el gobierno venezolano citó dos sondeos elaborados por las firmas 30.11 Consultores y el Instituto Venezolano de Análisis de Datos (IVAD).
In counterpoint to the negative results in the latest polls, the Venezuelan government cited two surveys conducted by 30.11 Consultores and IVAD.
Según la encuesta de 30.11 Consultores, el “Sí” recibiría el 56,2% de los votos, mientras que el 38,5% sería para el “No”.
According to the survey by 30.11 Consultores, YES would win 56.2% of the votes, against 38.5% for NO.
Notícias 24 (Venezuela) noted a dispute over polling numbers on November 13, 2006 involving 30.11.
La semana pasada se publicó en Venezuela y en EE.UU. una encuesta que daba una amplia ventaja a Hugo Chávez sobre el candidato opositor Manuel Rosales. La misma fue pagada por PDVSA y encargada a la firma norteamericana Evans/McDonough que contó con la colaboración de la venezolana Consultores 30.11. La oposición afirmó que esta encuesta no era fiable. Ayer, en las páginas del semanario “La Razón”, Germán Campos, director de Consultores 30.11 se defiende y aclara puntos de la encuesta.
Last week a survey was published in Venezuela and the U.S. giving a wide advantage to Chávez over the opposition candidate, Rosales. This survey was paid for by PDVSA and contracted out to the U.S. firm Evans/McDonough, which counted on the collaboration of the Venezuelan firm Consultores 30.11. The opposition says this survey was not reliable. Yesterday, in El Razón, 30.11 CEO Campos defended his firm and clarified points in the survey.
N24 does not, naturally link to the La Razón story so one can go and read it.
Chávez did indeed go on to whomp Rosales.
“Hugo will whomp Rosales,” November 2006, attributed to Evans/McDononough. Source: Noticias 24 (Venezuela).
A Web site registered to IVAD announces it is “under construction” (above). From a whois query:
INSTITUTO VENEZOLANO DE ANÁLISIS DE DATO
Av. La Salle, Edf. La Salle, piso 1, ofc. 101, Los Caobos
Caracas, DF VE
Technical contact: Seijas, Felix L. (email@example.com)
O instituto de pesquisa Datanálisis desmentiu que tenha dado projeções dos resultados do referendo sobre a reforma constitucional na Venezuela, em uma declaração de seu diretor Luis Vicente León.
Datanális denied it had provided projected results in the referendum, in a statement by director Luis Vicente León.
“Uma vez que houve muita confusão entre pesquisas de boca de urna que mencionam estatísticas e resultados provenientes do Datanalisis, queremos deixar claro que tudo isso é informação falsa, que nós não estamos fazendo pesquisas de boca de urna neste processo eleitoral”, disse León.
“Given that there was a lot of confusion among exit polls that mention statistics and results attributed to our firm, we want to make it clear that these reports are false, we are not doing exit-polling in this election,” said León.
“Qualquer informação que cite o Datanálisis como fonte é falsa e provém de uma manipulação da informação”, acrescentou, depois de ter sido difundida a informação segundo a qual este instituto de pesquisa, um dos mais respeitados da Venezuela, dava vantagem ao “Sim”.
“Any reports that cite Datanálisis as a source is false and comes from manipulation of the news,” he added, after it was reported that this polling institute, one of the most respected in Venezuela, had predicted an advantage for YES.
Reported by whom?
Respected by whom?
For what reason?
Let us see if EFE has a correction or clarification to offer.
Result of search on EFE Web site for its coverage of this topic: “This page cannot be displayed.” For more information, contact Microsoft Support. Pois é.