Venezuela: “YES Fails in Technical Tie”

The Consejo Nacional Electoral of Venezuela — La Democracia Evoluciona! (“democracy evolves”) — reports the results of the constitutional referendum.

The EFE news agency reports that these results differ fairly substantially from the exit polling. Most news reports indicate a Chávez concession, but several news agency also register official government calls on NO to concede, based on exit polling.

Exit polls, using methods benchmarked for relative reliability and used by polling and news orgnaizations to call elections, are off by a surprising degree. Fear, uncertainty and doubt ensue. Sound familiar? Dan Rather and Wolf Blitzer remember.

See also

En cadena de radio y televisión, la directiva en pleno del Poder Electoral informó que el Consejo Nacional Electoral para dar cumplimiento al artículo número 344 de la Constitución de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela y a los artículos 185 y 189 de las Normas para Regular el Referendo de Reforma Constitucional, del 05 de noviembre de 2007, emanada del Consejo Nacional Electoral, una vez recibidas las actas de escrutinios, la Comisión de Totalización procedió a examinarlas comprobándose que corresponden a las mesas electorales de la circunscripción nacional, procedió a totalizar los votos obtenidos por las opciones del Si y No de la siguiente pregunta:

On national radio and TV, the election commission, convened in plenary session, reported that the CNE, in compliance with Article 344 of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic and Articles 185 and 189 of the Rules for the Constitution Referendum (November 5, 2007), issued by the CNE, having received the final vote tallies, the Vote-Counting Committee proceeded to examine them, confirming they correspond to the voting precincts from around the nation, proceeded to total the votes obtained by YES and NO on the following question:

¿Aprueba usted el proyecto de Reforma Constitucional con sus Títulos, Capítulos, Disposiciones Transitorias, Derogatoria y Final; presentado en dos bloques y sancionado por la Asamblea Nacional, con la participación del pueblo y con base en la iniciativa del Presidente Hugo Chávez?

Do you approve of the proposed Constitutional Reform …

En el Bloque A, la opción del NO obtuvo 4.504.354, con 50.70% de la votación. La opción del Si, obtuvo 4.379.392, con 49.29%.

In Block A, NO obtained 4,504,354, with 50.7% of the votes. YES obtained 4,379,392, with 49.29%

El total de votos válidos 8 millones 883 mil 746.

Total valid votes: 8,883,746.

Total de votos nulos 118 mil 693.

Null votes: 118,693.

Total de votos escrutados 9 millones 2 mil 439.

Total votes counted: 9,002,439.

Abstención del 44.11%

Abstention: 44.11%.

En el Bloque B, la opción del NO obtuvo 4.522.332, con 51.05%. La opción del Si obtuvo 4.335.136 con 48.94%.

In Block B, NO obtained 4,522,322, or 51.05%. YES obtained 4,33,136, with 48.94%.

La presidenta del ente comicial dijo que faltaba un porcentaje de actas para la totalización y que “al analizar las transmisiones realizadas hasta el momento se determinó y se comprobó que es una tendencia que no es reversible. Es decir, que la votación se mantendrá con las actas aún faltantes y la tendencia se mantiene”.

The president of the CNE said a percentage of the vote tallies remained to be counted and “on analyzing the results up to the moment it was determined and demonstrated that the trend is not reversible. That is to say, that the result will be maintained in the votes yet to be counted and the trend will prevail.”

Something like that.

It is official:  Uncle Hugo fairly graciously conceded.

Imagine that: a gracious Uncle Hugo. (The guy’s rhetorical blender actually does actually have other speeds than trash-talking motormouth puree; you just rarely read about it.)

I suppose that in any event, a vote short of a ringing endorsement would make a substantial reengineering of the constitutional order politically unviable.

But forget that: We are not Venezuelans, so it is none of our business, really. What about the accuracy of the beancounting here?

Paulo Henrique Amorim (Brazil): “First exit polls indicated victory for Chávez.”

Segundo a agência EFE, as pesquisas mostram 54% “SIM” e 46% “NÃO”, pela PLM Consultores. A Datanálises dá 56% a 44%. E o Instituto Venezuelano de dados dá 53% a 47%.

According to the EFE news agency, exit polls conducted by PLM Consultores indicated 54% YES and 46% NO. Datanalysis prediced 56% YES and 44% NO. And the Instituto Venezuelano indicated 53% YES and 47% NO.

Terra (Brazil), 9:00 pm last evening:

Estas enquetes, divulgadas apesar de a lei proibir a publicação de pesquisas na Venezuela antes dos resultados oficiais que serão anunciados pelo Conselho Nacional Eleitoral (CNE), foram realizadas pela PLM Consultores, Datanálisis e o Instituto Venezuelano de Análise de Dados (Ivad) e refletem todas a vitória do “sim”.

These polls, published despite the law prohibiting publication of exit-polling prior to the official anouncement of results by the CNE, were conducted by PLM, Datanalysis and IVAD, and all reflect a victory for YES.

Terra publishes the same numbers as EFE.

Concordando com estas pesquisas, o ministro venezuelano de Informação, William Lara, disse que a oposição conhece o resultado do referendo e pediu que seus líderes o reconheçam para honrar a palavra que este sábado empenharam perante as autoridades eleitorais.

Agreeing with these exit polls, Venezuelan information minister Lara said the opposition should recognize the result and asked its leader to recognize it in order to honor the word they gave on Saturday to the election authorities.

“O comando do ‘não’ sabe qual é o resultado. É a hora de cumprirem a palavra que ontem empenharam perante o CNE que reconheceriam o resultado”, disse Lara ao canal Venevisión.

“The people leading NO know what the result is. It is time for them to keep their word to the CNE and recognize the result,” he told the Venevision TV channel.

So, then: Those predicting a technical tie (Hinterlaces) appear to have called the official result this time.

They had called a technical tie in the presidential elections of 2006 and been wrong by a very wide margin.

Those predicting massive electoral fraud (ORVEX; see above) in the “vulnerable” electronic-voting system should be issuing a “never mind” right about now. (They issued an “our heroic efforts thwarted the attempt at massive fraud we have been warning you about!”)

Will the YES crowd now take up the banner?

Pundits predicting that NI-NI (“neither-nor”) might play the deciding role may now have a plausible claim to have seen things clearly.

It will be interesting to see what the elections nerds have to say about quality-control. Most of what is written on the subject tends to be nonsense.

The image “” cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.
Bolivarian Photoshop montage:”death to the Yankee invaders”


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