Chávez Defeat: “Could the Absence of a Plot Itself Be a Plot?”

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“Exit polls give victory to Chávez in referendum”: The
Folha de S. Paulo front page on the day after.

Could the absence of a plot itself be a plot?

It is very effective to mobilize mass support against a scapegoated enemy by claiming that the enemy is part of a vast insidious conspiracy against the common good. The conspiracist worldview sees secret plots by tiny cabals of evildoers as the major motor powering important historical events; makes irrational leaps of logic in analyzing factual evidence in order to “prove” connections, blames social conflicts on demonized scapegoats, and constructs a closed metaphysical worldview that is highly resistant to criticism. When conspiracist scapegoating occurs, the results can devastate a society, disrupting rational political discourse and creating targets who are harassed and even murdered. Public Eye, “Conspiracism”

The NOTICIERO DIGITAL (Venezuela) lives on the same Web host as the supposedly “phony government blog” referred to recently by the Folha de S. Paulo as the source of disinformation that the Folha de S. Paulo ran as its top headline on December 3.

On which see

Agustín BLANCO MUÑOZ writes to defend the online news publication — “the power of citizen journalism!” — against charges that it was the source of the apocryphal exit polls calling the December referendum.

Also by this author:

That is, Fidel is the president of the elections commission. As he says

We have maintained and continue to maintain that, at least since the 2004 election, the fundamental support for the regime resists on … the control of key institutions like the Elections Authority, which is today is utterly at its service to design and carry out the triumphs required by the revolution.

The effort to explain the narrow victory for NO within the framework of this theory requires belief in “reasons that cannot yet be known.”

Or UFOs. Take your pick. Same thing.

Blanco attributes the disinformation published by EFE, O Globo, the Folha, the Estadão, and many international news sources, to an information warfare campaign run by General Baduel, a former staunch Chávez supporter who urged a NO vote on December 2. See

I am just noting this down for now because the “apocryphal” Web site to which the meme came from lives on the same Web host as this publication.

I would really like someone to explain to me where the news report came from that (nonexistent) exit polls called the referendum for Uncle Hugo.

¿Fraude-trampa el 2D?

Fraud-trap on December 2?

Necesario responder a quienes dicen que no acertamos al señalar que el 2D-07 triunfaría el régimen. Dijimos y repetimos que ningún autoritarismo, con clara inspiración totalitaria, puede perder elecciones porque aplica el fraude-trampa. Esto lo fundamentamos en investigaciones sobre el proceso electoral venezolano. Y a ese respecto mantenemos nuestra disposición a debatir el tema en la Cátedra Pío Tamayo de la UCV.

I need to respond to those who say we were wrong in predicting that the regime would triumph on December 2, 2007. We said and we repeat that no authoritarianism, with clear totalitarian pretensions, could lose elections because it applies a fraud-trap. We base this on our investigations into the Venezuelan elections process. And we continue to be willing to debate the topic at UCV.

En ningún caso señalamos que el oficialismo ganaría por ser mayoría sino por los “manejos especiales” que adelanta. Y en el caso del 2D-07, por causas que aún no se pueden precisar, no se aplicó la maquinaria previamente montada o se utilizó parcialmente porque surgieron factores que lo dificultaron.

At no time did we state that the official position would win because it was the majority, but rather because of the “special management” it carried out. In the case of the December vote, for reasons that cannot yet be detailed, the machinery previously set up did not operate, or was used only partially because factors arose that impeded it.

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In praise of Blackwater: Noise, hysteria and Clockwork Orange ultraviolence. Nun-raping scenes omitted due to the Grand Theft Auto syndrome.

En esto pudo haber jugado un papel determinante el operativo que parece haber montado un equipo con el conocimiento, cooperación o coordinación del general (r) Raúl Baduel, quien el 5N-07 señaló que de producirse el 2D-07 un fraude constitucional, actuaría como el 13A-02 para restituir la vigencia de la Carta Magna.

In this, an operative who seems to have mounted a team with the knowledge, cooperation, or even leadership of retired General Baduel, may have played a crucial role. Baduel said on November 5 that if December 2 produced a constitutional fraud, he would act again as he did on April 13, 2002, to restore the constitutional order.

Ante un golpe, un contragolpe o rescate de la democracia.

Faced with a coup, a countercoup to restore democracy.

Hemos mantenido y mantenemos que, al menos desde el 15A-04, el apoyo fundamental de este régimen reside en la tarifa y en el control de instituciones claves como el Poder Electoral, que está hoy a su entera disposición para diseñar e instrumentar los triunfos que requiera la “revolución”.

We have maintained and continue to maintain that, at least since the 2004 election, the fundamental support for the regime resists on … the control of key institutions like the Elections Authority, which is today is utterly at its service to design and carry out the triumphs required by the revolution.

Esto se plantea el 2D-07. Pero por razones no del todo claras aún, no se aplica, o se impide simplemente el instrumento que permite la sustracción de votos. Y si se hizo, no alcanzó los niveles requeridos para consumar un fraude.

This was the basis for 2D-07. But for reasons not yet clear, it was not put into practice, or the instrument that permitted the subtraction of votes was simply prevented from operating. Or if it was, it did not reach the levels required to consummate the fraud.

Lo definitivo es que a esta hora no nos es posible establecer con precisión cómo se produce el “triunfo pírrico” de “las oposiciones”. ¿Impidió la advertencia Baduel que se consumara la trampa? ¿Podría la ausencia de trampa constituir otra trampa? Lo que sí podemos afirmar es que no es verdad que a partir de esta situación se creó en este ex país una posibilidad-camino de y para la reconciliación.

What is definitive at this hour is that it is not possible to establish with precision how the “pyrrhic victory” of “the oppositions” came about. Did Baduel’s warning prevent the plot from going forward? Could the absence of a plot itself be a plot? What we can stay is that it is not true that based on this situation, the possibility of and a path toward reconciliation can be established.

All that we know for certain is that nothing can be known for certain.

Socrates said that, I believe.

So did David “Fear and Misinformation Abound” Sasaki of Hearing O Globo Voices Online.

But then Socrates was (1) a literary character, “based on a true story,” and (2) known for the brand of irony that bears his moniker.

That could also be true of David “Fear and Misinformation Abound” Sasaki as well, I suppose. See also

This is the “closed metaphysical universe” in action. Closed like the box in which Schrodinger’s poor cat is imprisoned.

El estallido del GP el 5D-07 calificando de “mierda” a quienes triunfaron en el “referendo aprobatorio” muestra su burla-desprecio a la aspiración de la pazconvivencia. Por ello, Sancho, todo parece apuntar que vamos hacia otra etapa de la misma guerra ¡pero con mayor intensidad!


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