Insane, Hillarious Victory Is a Devastating Surprise!

4. The Brazilian news media gives a blank check to the international news agencies, with respect to credbility. If these agencies commit an error, their reporting collapses along with it. … 5. Brazilian political and economic commentators perform their analyses before the fact. Before they know that it actually happened, they have an explanation for it. They present opinion divorced from information. –Ricardo Kauffman

Results Upend Both Parties; Obama Is 2nd: The W$J calls it “an upset.”

New Hampshire voters jolted the presidential nomination race, giving Republican Sen. John [“Is Insane”] McCain a much-needed victory and, in an upset, handing Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton a win that revives her campaign after her loss in Iowa.

New Hampshire population (2006 est.): 1,314,895.

Population of Brooklyn, New York (2006 est.): 2,508,820.

I could have sworn I saw the Jornal Nacional (Globo) here in Brazil calling the New Hampshire primary for “the Black Senator,” while reporting live on tape from “Manchester, USA.”

True to form, the Web site of the JN does not seem to include all the segments on the primaries last evening. It does admit to having reported this:

Pesquisas de boca-de-urna apontam vitória de Barack Obama e de John McCain em New Hampshire. O resultado oficial sai no início da madrugada desta quarta. Numa entrevista dada no Quênia, onde vive, a avó de Obama disse que o neto sabe ouvir e que trabalhará duro se for o presidente dos Estados Unidos.

Exit polls point to victory for Barack Obama and John [“Is Insane”] McCain in New Hampshire. The official result comes out in the early morning hours of Wednesday. In an interview given from Kenya, where she lives, Obama’s grandmother said her grandson knows how to listen and will work hard if elected President.

When Globo quacks, it tends to revise the rough draft of history to make it seem as though it did not. This, however, actually happened:

Chávez did not win the referendum in question. Whether those preliminary indicators on the Kenyan elections were accurate or not is officially clouded in fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Globo had featured polling results predicting an Obama victory:

O senador negro Barack Obama supera a senadora e ex-primeira-dama Hillary Clinton entre os eleitores das primárias democratas de New Hampshire, revela uma pesquisa publicada neste domingo (6).

The Black Senator Barack Obama is leading senator and former first lady Hillary Clinton among voters in the democratic primaries in New Hampshire, reveals a survey published this Sunday.

reveal – Use with caution. Use of the word implies (a) that Reuters accepts that the statement is true and (b) that the information had previously been kept secret, which may not be the case. –“A handbook of Reuters journalism”

Osama is the only “Black Senator” — and the fifth in U.S. history. But so what?

But Globo only reported on pre-primary polling that would have been be more accurate to have characterized as one of those “too close to call, within the polling margin of error” scenarios:

Segundo a pesquisa McClatchy-MSNBC, Obama tem 33% das intenções de voto, contra 31% para Hillary, já derrotada pelo senador no cáucus de Iowa, na quinta-feira passada.

According to the McClatchy-MSNBC poll, Obama has 33% of the intentions to vote, against 31% for Hillary, who has already been defeated by the Senator in the Iowa caucus last week.

Now Globo is explaining that Clinton “defied expectations” and won the hearts and minds of New Hampshire — the Rio Grande do Norte of the United States, in terms of its demographic significance.

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“Exit polls give victory to Chávez in referendum”: The
Folha de S. Paulo front page on the day after. Also: “Corininthians [football club] banished to the second-division.” One of which is actually a reliable, and, we believe, regrettable, fact, to the great chagrin of the fiel (some of whom tried to lynch some of the players the other day. Yeesh.)

A ex-primeira-dama ignorou as pesquisas de intenção de voto que apontavam larga vantagem de Barack Obama e venceu, em disputa muito apertada. Com 89% dos votos apurados, Hillary tinha 39 % contra 37% do seu principal concorrente.

The former first lady ignored polling showing a significant advantage for Barack Obama and won, in a very close race. With 89% of the vote counted, Hillary had 39% against 37% from her principal competitor.

Also within the polling margin of error.

But I cannot seem to find where Globo has reported on any hard poll results indicating any such “significant advantage” for “the Black Senator.”

The coverage has the following logic to it: Either

  1. Osama Obama will win, or
  2. [Mrs.] Clinton will win

When one of them wins, the prognosticator is to revered as a spooky genius — a political Chico Xavier. See also

A grande surpresa, segundo analistas que falam às redes de TV CNN e Fox News, pode estar relacionada com a decisão de última hora de muitos eleitores.

The big surprise, according to analysts who are speaking to CNN and Fox News, may have been related to the last-minute decisions of many voters.

Maybe Globo quacks so much because it is a black swan eagerly following the lead of such journalistic ugly ducklings.

Primate see, primate do.

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I plan mainly to ignore the political silly season — as a disgruntled independent (hear me roar) — I am not a registered dupe of either major private-sector power-brokerage  — and to encourage the W$J Numbers Guy’s exercise to keep up his performance measurements on the gabbling prognosticators. See, for example,

File under

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I would also like to see more interviews with the GOP mapache who has timed the release of his new book on 21st-century Donald Segrettism with the silly season:

Has he ever worked a foreign election, I wonder?

Like Rob Allyn and Dick Morris?


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